Predictions for 2009

Being able to accurately predict the future is the difference between success and failure in the market.  That’s why research reports from industry experts that daily analyze economic conditions can be very helpful.  One research report that I came across came from the Yankee Group and I thought I would share the predictions they’ve made for 2009 in the tech world:

Anywhere Consumer Predictions

• Premium brands will lose market share. Consumers will never quit the mobile habit, but they will demand better value from their services, which will drive short-term experimentation and change long-term brand loyalty.
• Cord-cutters will emerge from the economic mist. Large numbers of consumers will cut the broadband cord for good in favor of wireless. Consumer fixed-to-mobile substitution will accelerate, driven by a value imperative and a change in consumer habits.

Anywhere Enterprise Predictions

• Wired switch port sales will decline for the first time in history. Wireless LAN will transform from being an augmentation to the wired network to being the primary means of deployment. This will cause a slowdown, and ultimately a decline, in wired network switch port sales by the end of 2009.
• Desktop virtualization will replace PC replacement. Mass workforce consolidations, especially in the financial services market, will force enterprises to look for ways to provision vast amounts of desktops to absorbed workforces in a fast, cheap and secure manner. 2009 will be the year that enterprises move away from the pilot and evaluation stages and finally take the desktop virtualization plunge.

Anywhere Network Predictions

• Two of the eight global network equipment manufacturers will be forced out of major markets. Spurred by market consolidation and tighter capex budgets, two giants among Alcatel-Lucent, Cisco, Ericsson, Huawei, Juniper, Motorola, Nokia Siemens Networks and Nortel will be forced to exit major service provider business lines and/or significantly reorganize and scale down.
• Subsidies on smart phones will strangle operator profits. The current two-year service contract requirement for devices such as the Apple iPhone and the BlackBerry Storm are out of sync with shorter innovation, refresh and consumer demand cycles. Operator profitability on these devices will suffer as a result.

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